Direction: neutral — Based on 153 active signals and market momentum
Iran says it fired missiles at US warship to prevent it entering Hormuz
Ras Laffan processes ~80M tons of LNG annually and supplies 30% of global trade; force majeure instantly removes this volume from European and Asian spot markets, pushing prices to multi-year highs within hours. The 2022 Freeport LNG outage (8% of US LNG capacity) drove European TTF +€15/MWh in a day; Ras Laffan at 30% of global supply creates even steeper contango and forces spot buyers to premium markets.
88% confidence · criticalQatar accounts for ~30% of global LNG supply (~80M tons/yr); Iranian missile strikes triggered force majeure on this critical hub, and Hormuz closure blocks exports to Asia (60% of global LNG demand). 2022 supply disruptions in Europe lifted Henry Hub 3-4x and European LNG spot prices to $60/MMBtu; this strike on the largest LNG exporter will spike Asian and European spot prices 25-35% within 48h.
88% confidence · highThe Strait of Hormuz transits ~20M bpd of crude and ~80M tons/yr of LNG; a blockade immediately tightens both markets and forces tankers on longer routes, raising shipping costs 15-25%. The 2022 Russia sanctions crisis created a 5-8% sustained oil premium over 6+ months as alternative shipping routes filled capacity.
80% confidence · highThe Strait of Hormuz transits ~21% of global oil supply (20M bpd) and 28% of global LNG, but April 2026 real-time vessel data shows traffic near collapse despite Iran-US claims of reopening. Prior precedent: 2019 tanker attacks in Hormuz moved Brent +4-5% intraday; confirmed multi-week blockages (1973 Arab embargo, 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War tanker war) created 20-30% price spikes sustained over months.
80% confidence · highThe Strait of Hormuz carries 20M bpd (21% of global supply) and 32% of global LNG (~350M tons/yr); a confirmed military strike signals enforcement of closure, not just rhetoric. The 2019 Abqaiq attack on Saudi infrastructure (5.7M bpd offline) moved Brent +15% ($66→$76) overnight and sustained a $5-8 premium for two weeks. Iran's demonstrated willingness to strike US assets directly materially raises the probability of sustained Hormuz disruption beyond the 'no deal, no war' stalemate.
78% confidence · highUS diplomatic mobilization to 'reopen' Hormuz indicates the Strait is currently constrained or blockaded — 21% of global crude (~21M bpd) and 30% of LNG pass through. A functional closure would be the largest supply shock since 1973 (Arab Embargo caused 7M bpd offline, moved oil +400%). LNG spot prices to Asia would spike within hours of confirmed blockade.
75% confidence · highGlobal gas trade is regionalized — EU/Asian spot prices can spike independently. LNG rerouting adds 10-15 days and $1-2/MMBtu.
78% confidence · highU.S. shale production now exceeds combined domestic consumption (~85 Bcf/day) plus LNG export capacity (Freeport, Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi = ~10 Bcf/day), leaving marginal producers with no outlet except negative-price transactions. This mirrors early 2023 when persistent oversupply drove Henry Hub to $2–$2.50/MMBtu for months; current production growth without corresponding demand (no new LNG terminals, industrial demand flat) suggests sustained downside pressure.
75% confidence · mediumPakistan's return to LNG imports after a forced two-month halt reduces urgency buying on the spot market; the country typically imports 7-8M tons annually, and its forced absence contributed to elevated Asian LNG premiums. The Seapeak Magellan's arrival suggests payment issues are easing, normalizing demand flows. This parallels 2022's energy crisis unwinding when LNG supply chains stabilized.
72% confidence · mediumDe-escalation/resolution removes geopolitical risk premium → short
72% confidence · highChina represents ~15% of global LNG demand (~20M tons/yr); a 30% YoY drop in April imports (4.3M ton swing) indicates price elasticity has broken the market — importers shifting to alternative fuels or delaying purchases. This mirrors 2022's demand destruction when spot LNG exceeded $80/MMBtu and Asian buyers cut intake 20-25% within 6 weeks, signaling peak prices are now in effect.
72% confidence · mediumADNOC LNG tanker crossing Hormuz is first confirmed passage since February blockade — suggests either tacit agreement to allow LNG tankers or security corridor opening. UAE LNG exports (~5-8M tons/yr) resuming to Asia will reduce backwardated spot premiums. Each week of Hormuz LNG passage re-opening erodes scarcity premium by 1-2% in Asian markets; 2022 Panama Canal partial reopening saw TTF spot decline 8% over 4 weeks as supply bottleneck eased.
72% confidence · medium| Venue | Asset | Price | 24h | Volume | Funding | Leverage | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TradeXYZ | NATGAS | $2.82 | ↑ +0.52% | $7.31M | +0.0027% | 25x | Trade on Hyperliquid |
| Felix | GAS | $2.81 | ↓ -1.76% | $340.2K | +0.0856% | 20x | Trade on Hyperliquid |
Iran claimed it fired missiles at a US Navy destroyer in the Strait of Hormuz to prevent it from entering the waterway. The Strait handles ~21% of global crude oil exports (~20M bpd) and 32% of LNG.
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
Trump orders new Hormuz mission after Iran says it receives US response to its peace proposal.
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
President Trump said the US will begin Project Freedom on Monday to guide stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
Russia's army faces a desertion crisis as it continues to use waves of soldiers to attack Ukraine's defensive positions.
Historical: Russia-Ukraine war outbreak — Oil surged to $130/bbl, +25% in two weeks
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
Iran protests as Trump announces Project Freedom to escort stranded ships out of Strait of Hormuz.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
Naval blockades are among the oldest weapons of war, using sea control to cut supplies and force an enemy’s surrender.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
Syria is receiving hundreds of Iraqi oil trucks hauling crude overland as an alternative energy corridor to Europe.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
Trump said he was not satisfied with the latest Iranian proposal. Iran's foreign minister said Tehran was ready for diplomacy if U.S. changes its approach.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit $105 by end of March 2026?
Resolves YES if CME front-month WTI Crude Oil (CL) settlement price reaches $105/bbl on any trading day by March 31, 2026. Oil has surged past $100 amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis with ~70% of tanker traffic disrupted.
US-Iran ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Resolves YES if a publicly announced, mutually agreed halt in direct US-Iran military engagement occurs by April 30, 2026. Informal understandings, unilateral pauses, and humanitarian pauses do NOT qualify. The Strait of Hormuz closure has disrupted ~20M bbl/day of oil transit.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before 2027?
Resolves YES if a publicly announced, mutually agreed halt in military engagement occurs by Dec 31, 2026. Energy infrastructure-only ceasefires do NOT qualify. Ukraine+Russia = ~30% of global wheat exports. Ceasefire would ease sanctions on Russian energy exports.
Iranian regime falls by end of 2026?
Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic core structures (Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, IRGC) are dissolved or replaced. Iran holds 12% of global proven oil reserves. Regime collapse = short-term chaos (oil spike) then long-term normalization (production from 3.2M to 5M+ bbl/day).
US recession by end of 2026?
Resolves YES if two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth occur, or NBER officially announces a recession. Oil above $100 creates a feedback loop: high energy costs increase recession risk, which would then crash commodity demand.
Direction: neutral — Based on 153 active signals and market momentum
Iran says it fired missiles at US warship to prevent it entering Hormuz
Ras Laffan processes ~80M tons of LNG annually and supplies 30% of global trade; force majeure instantly removes this volume from European and Asian spot markets, pushing prices to multi-year highs within hours. The 2022 Freeport LNG outage (8% of US LNG capacity) drove European TTF +€15/MWh in a day; Ras Laffan at 30% of global supply creates even steeper contango and forces spot buyers to premium markets.
88% confidence · criticalQatar accounts for ~30% of global LNG supply (~80M tons/yr); Iranian missile strikes triggered force majeure on this critical hub, and Hormuz closure blocks exports to Asia (60% of global LNG demand). 2022 supply disruptions in Europe lifted Henry Hub 3-4x and European LNG spot prices to $60/MMBtu; this strike on the largest LNG exporter will spike Asian and European spot prices 25-35% within 48h.
88% confidence · highThe Strait of Hormuz transits ~20M bpd of crude and ~80M tons/yr of LNG; a blockade immediately tightens both markets and forces tankers on longer routes, raising shipping costs 15-25%. The 2022 Russia sanctions crisis created a 5-8% sustained oil premium over 6+ months as alternative shipping routes filled capacity.
80% confidence · highThe Strait of Hormuz transits ~21% of global oil supply (20M bpd) and 28% of global LNG, but April 2026 real-time vessel data shows traffic near collapse despite Iran-US claims of reopening. Prior precedent: 2019 tanker attacks in Hormuz moved Brent +4-5% intraday; confirmed multi-week blockages (1973 Arab embargo, 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War tanker war) created 20-30% price spikes sustained over months.
80% confidence · highThe Strait of Hormuz carries 20M bpd (21% of global supply) and 32% of global LNG (~350M tons/yr); a confirmed military strike signals enforcement of closure, not just rhetoric. The 2019 Abqaiq attack on Saudi infrastructure (5.7M bpd offline) moved Brent +15% ($66→$76) overnight and sustained a $5-8 premium for two weeks. Iran's demonstrated willingness to strike US assets directly materially raises the probability of sustained Hormuz disruption beyond the 'no deal, no war' stalemate.
78% confidence · highUS diplomatic mobilization to 'reopen' Hormuz indicates the Strait is currently constrained or blockaded — 21% of global crude (~21M bpd) and 30% of LNG pass through. A functional closure would be the largest supply shock since 1973 (Arab Embargo caused 7M bpd offline, moved oil +400%). LNG spot prices to Asia would spike within hours of confirmed blockade.
75% confidence · highGlobal gas trade is regionalized — EU/Asian spot prices can spike independently. LNG rerouting adds 10-15 days and $1-2/MMBtu.
78% confidence · highU.S. shale production now exceeds combined domestic consumption (~85 Bcf/day) plus LNG export capacity (Freeport, Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi = ~10 Bcf/day), leaving marginal producers with no outlet except negative-price transactions. This mirrors early 2023 when persistent oversupply drove Henry Hub to $2–$2.50/MMBtu for months; current production growth without corresponding demand (no new LNG terminals, industrial demand flat) suggests sustained downside pressure.
75% confidence · mediumPakistan's return to LNG imports after a forced two-month halt reduces urgency buying on the spot market; the country typically imports 7-8M tons annually, and its forced absence contributed to elevated Asian LNG premiums. The Seapeak Magellan's arrival suggests payment issues are easing, normalizing demand flows. This parallels 2022's energy crisis unwinding when LNG supply chains stabilized.
72% confidence · mediumDe-escalation/resolution removes geopolitical risk premium → short
72% confidence · highChina represents ~15% of global LNG demand (~20M tons/yr); a 30% YoY drop in April imports (4.3M ton swing) indicates price elasticity has broken the market — importers shifting to alternative fuels or delaying purchases. This mirrors 2022's demand destruction when spot LNG exceeded $80/MMBtu and Asian buyers cut intake 20-25% within 6 weeks, signaling peak prices are now in effect.
72% confidence · mediumADNOC LNG tanker crossing Hormuz is first confirmed passage since February blockade — suggests either tacit agreement to allow LNG tankers or security corridor opening. UAE LNG exports (~5-8M tons/yr) resuming to Asia will reduce backwardated spot premiums. Each week of Hormuz LNG passage re-opening erodes scarcity premium by 1-2% in Asian markets; 2022 Panama Canal partial reopening saw TTF spot decline 8% over 4 weeks as supply bottleneck eased.
72% confidence · medium| Venue | Asset | Price | 24h | Volume | Funding | Leverage | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TradeXYZ | NATGAS | $2.82 | ↑ +0.52% | $7.31M | +0.0027% | 25x | Trade on Hyperliquid |
| Felix | GAS | $2.81 | ↓ -1.76% | $340.2K | +0.0856% | 20x | Trade on Hyperliquid |
Iran claimed it fired missiles at a US Navy destroyer in the Strait of Hormuz to prevent it from entering the waterway. The Strait handles ~21% of global crude oil exports (~20M bpd) and 32% of LNG.
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
Trump orders new Hormuz mission after Iran says it receives US response to its peace proposal.
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
President Trump said the US will begin Project Freedom on Monday to guide stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
Russia's army faces a desertion crisis as it continues to use waves of soldiers to attack Ukraine's defensive positions.
Historical: Russia-Ukraine war outbreak — Oil surged to $130/bbl, +25% in two weeks
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
Iran protests as Trump announces Project Freedom to escort stranded ships out of Strait of Hormuz.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
Naval blockades are among the oldest weapons of war, using sea control to cut supplies and force an enemy’s surrender.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
Syria is receiving hundreds of Iraqi oil trucks hauling crude overland as an alternative energy corridor to Europe.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 21% of global oil supply (~20M bpd). Any military escalation in the Persian Gulf introduces a serious risk premium into Brent and WTI. Historical precedent: the Jan 2020 US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
Trump said he was not satisfied with the latest Iranian proposal. Iran's foreign minister said Tehran was ready for diplomacy if U.S. changes its approach.
Historical: US-Iran tensions Jan 2020 (Soleimani strike) — Oil +4.5% in 24h, Brent briefly above $70
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit $105 by end of March 2026?
Resolves YES if CME front-month WTI Crude Oil (CL) settlement price reaches $105/bbl on any trading day by March 31, 2026. Oil has surged past $100 amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis with ~70% of tanker traffic disrupted.
US-Iran ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Resolves YES if a publicly announced, mutually agreed halt in direct US-Iran military engagement occurs by April 30, 2026. Informal understandings, unilateral pauses, and humanitarian pauses do NOT qualify. The Strait of Hormuz closure has disrupted ~20M bbl/day of oil transit.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before 2027?
Resolves YES if a publicly announced, mutually agreed halt in military engagement occurs by Dec 31, 2026. Energy infrastructure-only ceasefires do NOT qualify. Ukraine+Russia = ~30% of global wheat exports. Ceasefire would ease sanctions on Russian energy exports.
Iranian regime falls by end of 2026?
Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic core structures (Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, IRGC) are dissolved or replaced. Iran holds 12% of global proven oil reserves. Regime collapse = short-term chaos (oil spike) then long-term normalization (production from 3.2M to 5M+ bbl/day).
US recession by end of 2026?
Resolves YES if two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth occur, or NBER officially announces a recession. Oil above $100 creates a feedback loop: high energy costs increase recession risk, which would then crash commodity demand.